Thursday, February 24, 2011

My predictions: 83rd Academy Awards (updated)


I have been following the race to Oscar Sunday since September, and I'm ready to make my predictions in all 24 categories. (Update: I correctly predicted 15/24 categories, a 60 percent accuracy, down slightly from last year.)

Best Picture √ Correct
“Black Swan” Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver and Scott Franklin, Producers
“The Fighter” David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman and Mark Wahlberg, Producers
“Inception” Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers
“The Kids Are All Right” Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte and Celine Rattray, Producers
“The King's Speech” Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin, Producers
“127 Hours” Christian Colson, Danny Boyle and John Smithson, Producers
“The Social Network” Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca and Ce├ín Chaffin, Producers
“Toy Story 3” Darla K. Anderson, Producer
“True Grit” Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
“Winter's Bone" Anne Rosellini and Alix Madigan-Yorkin, Producers



Best Director X Incorrect
Tom Hooper ("The King's Speech")
Darren Aronofsky (“Black Swan” )
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen (“True Grit”)
David Fincher (“The Social Network”)
Tom Hooper (“The King's Speech”)
David O. Russell (“The Fighter”)

Best Actor in a Leading Role √ Correct
Javier Bardem ("Biutiful")
Jeff Bridges ("True Grit")
Jesse Eisenberg ("The Social Network")
Colin Firth ("The King's Speech")
James Franco ("127 Hours")

Best Actress in a Leading Role √ Correct
Annette Bening ("The Kids Are All Right")
Nicole Kidman ("Rabbit Hole")
Jennifer Lawrence ("Winter's Bone")
Natalie Portman ("Black Swan")
Michelle Williams (“Blue Valentine”)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role √ Correct
Christian Bale ("The Fighter")
John Hawkes (“Winter’s Bone”)
Jeremy Renner (“The Town”)
Mark Ruffalo ("The Kids Are All Right")
Geoffrey Rush ("The King's Speech")

Best Actress in a Supporting Role √ Correct
Amy Adams ("The Fighter")
Helena Bonham Carter ("The King's Speech")
Melissa Leo ("The Fighter")
Hailee Steinfeld ("True Grit")
Jacki Weaver (“Animal Kingdom”)

Best Original Screenplay √ Correct
"Another Year," Mike Leigh
"The Fighter," Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson, Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
"Inception," Christopher Nolan
"The Kids Are All Right," Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumber
"The King's Speech," David Seidler

Best Adapted Screenplay √ Correct
"127 Hours," Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
"The Social Network," Aaron Sorkin
"Toy Story 3," Michael Arndt, Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
"True Grit," Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
"Winter’s Bone," Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini

Best Animated Feature √ Correct
"How to Train Your Dragon," Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois
"The Illusionist," Sylvain Chomet
"Toy Story 3," Lee Unkrich

Best Art Direction X Incorrect
"Alice in Wonderland," Production Design: Robert Stromberg; Set Decoration: Karen O'Hara
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I," Production Design: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
"Inception," Production Design: Guy Hendrix Dyas; Set Decoration: Larry Dias and Doug Mowat
"The King's Speech," Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Judy Farr
"True Grit," Production Design: Jess Gonchor; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh

Best Cinematography X Incorrect
"Black Swan," Matthew Libatique
"Inception," Wally Pfister
"The King's Speech," Danny Cohen
"The Social Network," Jeff Cronenweth
"True Grit," Roger Deakins

Best Costume Design X Incorrect
"Alice in Wonderland," Colleen Atwood
"I Am Love," Antonella Cannarozzi
"The King's Speech," Jenny Beavan
"The Tempest," Sandy Powell
"True Grit," Mary Zophres

Best Documentary Feature √ Correct
"Exit Through the Gift Shop," Banksy and Jaimie D'Cruz
"Gasland," Josh Fox and Trish Adlesic
“Inside Job,” Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
"Restrepo," Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger
"Waste Land," Lucy Walker and Angus Aynsley

Best Documentary Short √ Correct
"Killing in the Name", Jed Rothstein
"Poster Girl", Sara Nesson and Mitchell W. Block
"Strangers No More", Karen Goodman and Kirk Simon
"Sun Come Up," Jennifer Redfearn and Tim Metzger
"The Warriors of Qiugang," Ruby Yang and Thomas Lennon

Best Film Editing √ Correct
"Black Swan," Andrew Weisblum
"The Fighter," Pamela Martin
"The King's Speech," Tariq Anwar
"127 Hours," Jon Harris
"The Social Network," Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter

Best Foreign Language Film X Incorrect
“Biutiful” (Mexico)
“Dogtooth”(Greece)
“In a Better World” (Denmark)
“Incendies” (Canada)
“Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)” (Algeria)

Best Makeup √ Correct
"Barney's Version," Adrien Morot
"The Way Back," Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng
"The Wolfman," Rick Baker and Dave Elsey

Best Music — Original Score X Incorrect
"How to Train Your Dragon," John Powell
"Inception," Hans Zimmer
"The King's Speech," Alexandre Desplat
"127 Hours," A.R. Rahman
"The Social Network," Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

Best Music — Original Song √ Correct
"Coming Home" from "Country Strong," Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
"I See the Light" from "Tangled," Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
"If I Rise" from "127 Hours," Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
"We Belong Together" from "Toy Story 3," Music and Lyric by Randy Newman

Best Short Film Animated X Incorrect
"Day & Night," Teddy Newton
"The Gruffalo," Jakob Schuh and Max Lang
"Let’s Pollute," Geefwee Boedoe
"The Lost Thing," Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann
"Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)," Bastien Dubois

Best Short Film Live Action X Incorrect
"The Confession," Tanel Toom
"The Crush," Michael Creagh
"God of Love," Luke Matheny
"Na Wewe," Ivan Goldschmidt
"Wish 143," Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite

Best Sound Editing √ Correct
“Inception,” Richard King
“Toy Story 3,” Tom Myers and Michael Silvers
“TRON: Legacy,” Gwendolyn Yates Whittle and Addison Teague
“True Grit,” Skip Lievsay and Craig Berkey
“Unstoppable,” Mark P. Stoeckinger

Best Sound Mixing X Incorrect
“Inception,” Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick
“The King's Speech,” Paul Hamblin, Martin Jensen and John Midgley
“Salt,” Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg P. Russell, Scott Millan and William Sarokin
“The Social Network,” Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick and Mark Weingarten
“True Grit,” Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland

Best Visual Effects √ Correct
“Alice in Wonderland,” Ken Ralston, David Schaub, Carey Villegas and Sean Phillips
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1,” Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz and Nicolas Aithadi
“Hereafter,” Michael Owens, Bryan Grill, Stephan Trojansky and Joe Farrell
“Inception,” Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb
“Iron Man 2,” Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged Wright and Daniel Sudick

The 83rd Academy Awards were televised live on ABC Sunday, Feb. 27, 2011, at 5:30 p.m. PT. The Red Carpet arrivals show, extended to 90 minutes, began at 4 p.m. PT.

Here is a downloadable ballot, thanks to The Gold Knight Blog, my new adventure I started last fall because I just couldn't contain all of my excitement about the Academy Awards. I was in Los Angeles for the Oscars this year and am sharing all of my experiences on Facebook, Twitter and TGK.

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