My predictions: 83rd Academy Awards (updated)

I have been following the race to Oscar Sunday since September, and I'm ready to make my predictions in all 24 categories. (Update: I correctly predicted 15/24 categories, a 60 percent accuracy, down slightly from last year.)

Best Picture √ Correct
“Black Swan” Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver and Scott Franklin, Producers
“The Fighter” David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman and Mark Wahlberg, Producers
“Inception” Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers
“The Kids Are All Right” Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte and Celine Rattray, Producers
“The King's Speech” Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin, Producers
“127 Hours” Christian Colson, Danny Boyle and John Smithson, Producers
“The Social Network” Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca and Ceán Chaffin, Producers
“Toy Story 3” Darla K. Anderson, Producer
“True Grit” Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
“Winter's Bone" Anne Rosellini and Alix Madigan-Yorkin, Producers

Best Director X Incorrect
Tom Hooper ("The King's Speech")
Darren Aronofsky (“Black Swan” )
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen (“True Grit”)
David Fincher (“The Social Network”)
Tom Hooper (“The King's Speech”)
David O. Russell (“The Fighter”)

Best Actor in a Leading Role √ Correct
Javier Bardem ("Biutiful")
Jeff Bridges ("True Grit")
Jesse Eisenberg ("The Social Network")
Colin Firth ("The King's Speech")
James Franco ("127 Hours")

Best Actress in a Leading Role √ Correct
Annette Bening ("The Kids Are All Right")
Nicole Kidman ("Rabbit Hole")
Jennifer Lawrence ("Winter's Bone")
Natalie Portman ("Black Swan")
Michelle Williams (“Blue Valentine”)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role √ Correct
Christian Bale ("The Fighter")
John Hawkes (“Winter’s Bone”)
Jeremy Renner (“The Town”)
Mark Ruffalo ("The Kids Are All Right")
Geoffrey Rush ("The King's Speech")

Best Actress in a Supporting Role √ Correct
Amy Adams ("The Fighter")
Helena Bonham Carter ("The King's Speech")
Melissa Leo ("The Fighter")
Hailee Steinfeld ("True Grit")
Jacki Weaver (“Animal Kingdom”)

Best Original Screenplay √ Correct
"Another Year," Mike Leigh
"The Fighter," Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson, Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
"Inception," Christopher Nolan
"The Kids Are All Right," Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumber
"The King's Speech," David Seidler

Best Adapted Screenplay √ Correct
"127 Hours," Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
"The Social Network," Aaron Sorkin
"Toy Story 3," Michael Arndt, Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
"True Grit," Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
"Winter’s Bone," Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini

Best Animated Feature √ Correct
"How to Train Your Dragon," Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois
"The Illusionist," Sylvain Chomet
"Toy Story 3," Lee Unkrich

Best Art Direction X Incorrect
"Alice in Wonderland," Production Design: Robert Stromberg; Set Decoration: Karen O'Hara
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I," Production Design: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
"Inception," Production Design: Guy Hendrix Dyas; Set Decoration: Larry Dias and Doug Mowat
"The King's Speech," Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Judy Farr
"True Grit," Production Design: Jess Gonchor; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh

Best Cinematography X Incorrect
"Black Swan," Matthew Libatique
"Inception," Wally Pfister
"The King's Speech," Danny Cohen
"The Social Network," Jeff Cronenweth
"True Grit," Roger Deakins

Best Costume Design X Incorrect
"Alice in Wonderland," Colleen Atwood
"I Am Love," Antonella Cannarozzi
"The King's Speech," Jenny Beavan
"The Tempest," Sandy Powell
"True Grit," Mary Zophres

Best Documentary Feature √ Correct
"Exit Through the Gift Shop," Banksy and Jaimie D'Cruz
"Gasland," Josh Fox and Trish Adlesic
“Inside Job,” Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
"Restrepo," Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger
"Waste Land," Lucy Walker and Angus Aynsley

Best Documentary Short √ Correct
"Killing in the Name", Jed Rothstein
"Poster Girl", Sara Nesson and Mitchell W. Block
"Strangers No More", Karen Goodman and Kirk Simon
"Sun Come Up," Jennifer Redfearn and Tim Metzger
"The Warriors of Qiugang," Ruby Yang and Thomas Lennon

Best Film Editing √ Correct
"Black Swan," Andrew Weisblum
"The Fighter," Pamela Martin
"The King's Speech," Tariq Anwar
"127 Hours," Jon Harris
"The Social Network," Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter

Best Foreign Language Film X Incorrect
“Biutiful” (Mexico)
“Dogtooth”(Greece)
“In a Better World” (Denmark)
“Incendies” (Canada)
“Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)” (Algeria)

Best Makeup √ Correct
"Barney's Version," Adrien Morot
"The Way Back," Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng
"The Wolfman," Rick Baker and Dave Elsey

Best Music — Original Score X Incorrect
"How to Train Your Dragon," John Powell
"Inception," Hans Zimmer
"The King's Speech," Alexandre Desplat
"127 Hours," A.R. Rahman
"The Social Network," Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

Best Music — Original Song √ Correct
"Coming Home" from "Country Strong," Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
"I See the Light" from "Tangled," Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
"If I Rise" from "127 Hours," Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
"We Belong Together" from "Toy Story 3," Music and Lyric by Randy Newman

Best Short Film Animated X Incorrect
"Day & Night," Teddy Newton
"The Gruffalo," Jakob Schuh and Max Lang
"Let’s Pollute," Geefwee Boedoe
"The Lost Thing," Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann
"Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)," Bastien Dubois

Best Short Film Live Action X Incorrect
"The Confession," Tanel Toom
"The Crush," Michael Creagh
"God of Love," Luke Matheny
"Na Wewe," Ivan Goldschmidt
"Wish 143," Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite

Best Sound Editing √ Correct
“Inception,” Richard King
“Toy Story 3,” Tom Myers and Michael Silvers
“TRON: Legacy,” Gwendolyn Yates Whittle and Addison Teague
“True Grit,” Skip Lievsay and Craig Berkey
“Unstoppable,” Mark P. Stoeckinger

Best Sound Mixing X Incorrect
“Inception,” Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick
“The King's Speech,” Paul Hamblin, Martin Jensen and John Midgley
“Salt,” Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg P. Russell, Scott Millan and William Sarokin
“The Social Network,” Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick and Mark Weingarten
“True Grit,” Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland

Best Visual Effects √ Correct
“Alice in Wonderland,” Ken Ralston, David Schaub, Carey Villegas and Sean Phillips
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1,” Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz and Nicolas Aithadi
“Hereafter,” Michael Owens, Bryan Grill, Stephan Trojansky and Joe Farrell
“Inception,” Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb
“Iron Man 2,” Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged Wright and Daniel Sudick

The 83rd Academy Awards were televised live on ABC Sunday, Feb. 27, 2011, at 5:30 p.m. PT. The Red Carpet arrivals show, extended to 90 minutes, began at 4 p.m. PT.

Here is a downloadable ballot, thanks to The Gold Knight Blog, my new adventure I started last fall because I just couldn't contain all of my excitement about the Academy Awards. I was in Los Angeles for the Oscars this year and am sharing all of my experiences on Facebook, Twitter and TGK.

My predictions: Golden Globe Awards 2011 (updated)

Originally posted on The Gold Knight blog

It's time for bacchanalian party of the year: the Golden Globe Awards. Ricky Gervais is the ringleader for the second year of an evening where celebrities eat and, notably, drink — an awards show without the required gravitas. Last year Gervais was the first host in 15 years for the show by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

Here are my predictions (marked in blue and winners highlighted **) for the 68th Annual Golden Globe Awards. Enjoy and feel free to leave comments.

Josh Duhamel, Katie Holmes and Blair Underwood announced the noms in December. "The King's Speech" received seven nominations, "The Fighter" and "The Social Network" six.

Film 11/14

Best Motion Picture – Drama

• "Black Swan" #2
• "The Fighter"
• "Inception"
• "The King’s Speech" #3
• "The Social Network" **

Best Motion Picture – Comedy Or Musical

• "Alice In Wonderland"
• "Burlesque"
• "The Kids Are All Right" **
• "Red"
• "The Tourist"

Best Performance By An Actress In A Motion Picture – Drama

• Halle Berry, "Frankie And Alice"
• Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"
• Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter’s Bone" #2
• Natalie Portman, "Black Swan" **
• Michelle Williams, "Blue Valentine"

Best Performance By An Actor In A Motion Picture – Drama

• Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network" #3
• Colin Firth, "The King’s Speech" **
• James Franco, "127 Hours" #2
• Ryan Gosling, "Blue Valentine"
• Mark Wahlberg, "The Fighter"

Best Performance By An Actress In A Motion Picture – Comedy Or Musical

• Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right" **
• Anne Hathaway, "Love And Other Drugs"
• Angelina Jolie, "The Tourist"
• Julianne Moore, "The Kids Are All Right"
• Emma Stone, "Easy A"

Best Performance By An Actor In A Motion Picture – Comedy Or Musical

• Johnny Depp, "Alice In Wonderland"
• Johnny Depp, "The Tourist"
• Paul Giamatti, "Barney’s Version" **
• Jake Gyllenhaal, "Love And Other Drugs" #2
• Kevin Spacey, "Casino Jack"

Best Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role In A Motion Picture

• Amy Adams, "The Fighter" #3
• Helena Bonham Carter, "The King’s Speech"
• Mila Kunis, "Black Swan"
• Melissa Leo, "The Fighter" #2 **
• Jacki Weaver, "Animal Kingdom"

Best Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role In A Motion Picture

• Christian Bale, "The Fighter" **
• Michael Douglas, "Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps"
• Andrew Garfield, "The Social Network" #2
• Jeremy Renner, "The Town"
• Geoffrey Rush, "The King’s Speech" #3

Best Director – Motion Picture

• Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"
• David Fincher, "The Social Network" **
• Tom Hooper, "The King’s Speech"
• Christopher Nolan, "Inception" #2
• David O. Russell, "The Fighter"

Best Screenplay

• Christopher Nolan, “Inception” #2
• Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, “The Kids Are All Right”
• David Seidler, “The King’s Speech”
• Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy, “127 Hours”
• Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network” **

Best Foreign Language Film

• “Biutiful” (Mexico/Spain)
• “The Concert” (France)
• “The Edge” (Russia)
• “I Am Love” (Italy) #2
• “In a Better World” (Denmark) **

Best Animated Feature

• “Despicable Me”
• “How to Train Your Dragon”
• “The Illusionist”
• “Tangled”
• “Toy Story 3” **

Best Original Score

• Danny Elfman, “Alice in Wonderland”
• Hans Zimmer, “Inception” #2
• Alexandre Desplat, “The King’s Speech” #2
• A.R. Rahman, “127 Hours”
• Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, “The Social Network” **

Best Original Song

• “Bound to You” from “Burlesque”
• “You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” from “Burlesque” **
• “There’s a Place for Us” from “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader”
• “Coming Home” from “Country Strong”
• “I See the Light” from “Tangled” #2

Television 8/11

Best Television Series, Drama

• "Boardwalk Empire" #2 **
• "Dexter"
• "The Good Wife" #3
• "Mad Men"
• "The Walking Dead"

Best Televison Series, Comedy or Musical

• "30 Rock"
• "The Big Bang Theory"
• "The Big C"
• "Glee" **
• "Modern Family" #2
• "Nurse Jackie"

Best Actor in a Television Series, Drama

• Steve Buscemi, "Boardwalk Empire" **
• Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" #3
• Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"
• Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" #2
• Hugh Laurie, "House"

Best Actress in a Television Series, Drama

• Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"
• Elisabeth Moss, "Mad Men" #2
• Piper Perabo, "Covert Affairs"
• Katey Sagal, "Sons of Anarchy" **
• Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer"

Best Actor in a Television Series, Comedy or Musical

• Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" #2
• Steve Carell, "The Office" #3
• Thomas Jane, "Hung"
• Matthew Morrison, "Glee"
• Jim Parsons, "Big Bang Theory" **

Best Actress in a Television Series, Comedy or Musical

• Toni Collette, "United States of Tara" #3
• Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"
• Tina Fey, "30 Rock"
• Laura Linney, "The Big C" **
• Lea Michelle, "Glee" #2

Best Miniseries or Motion Picture Made for Television

• "The Pacific"
• "Carlos" #2 **
• "Temple Grandin"
• "You Don't Know Jack"
• "The Pillars of the Earth"

Best Actor in a Miniseries or Motion Picture Made for Television

• Dennis Quaid, "The Special Relationship" #2
• Ian McShane, "The Pillars of the Earth"
• Édgar Ramírez, "Carlos"
• Al Pacino, "You Don't Know Jack" **
• Idris Elba, "Luther"

Best Actress in a Miniseries or Motion Picture Made for Television

• Claire Danes, "Temple Grandin" **
• Hayley Atwell, "The Pillars of the Earth"
• Jennifer Love Hewitt, "The Client List"
• Judi Dench, "Return to Cranford"
• Romola Gara, "Emma"

Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries or Motion Picture Made for Television

• Hope Davis, "Special Relationship"
• Jane Lynch, "Glee" **
• Kelly McDonald, "Boardwalk Empire"
• Julia Stiles, "Dexter"
• Sofia Vergara, "Modern Family" #2

Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Miniseries or Motion Picture Made for Television

• Scott Caan, "Hawaii Five-0"
• Chris Noth, "The Good Wife"
• David Straithairn, "Temple Grandin" #2
• Eric Stonestreet, "Modern Family" #2
• Chris Colfer, "Glee" **

The Golden Globe Awards will air LIVE coast-to-coast on Sunday, January 16, 2011, on NBC from 5:00-8:00 p.m. (PST) /8:00-11:00 p.m. (EST) from the Beverly Hilton Hotel with host Ricky Gervais. (Originally posted: Jan. 16, 2011, at 5:00 p.m. ET)

My new adventure: The Gold Knight blog

I love the Oscars. I wear that on my sleeves. Over the last two years, I've used this blog, Rethink., as a place for covering the Academy Awards. Last fall, I decided that I needed a better (and more marketable) place for doing so. And thus was born The Gold Knight blog.

Over the course of the last few months, I've really taken off with my new blog. I have multiple correspondents — some of whom are close friends. I write a column for Toledo Free Press Star. I applied for Oscar Sunday press credentials and, while I did not get them, I have made some inroads with the Academy.

I am very proud of where I have been thus far and am exciting about where I am going. I'll be in Los Angeles for the Oscars this year. While I might not have full access, I have a few (legal) tricks up my sleeve.

To all my friends, thank you for all of the support and I appreciate your help and guidance.

Review and Commentary: ‘The Social Network’

I experienced college with Facebook. Toward the end of my senior year in high school, I heard about a website for social networking. Sure, we had MySpace in high school, but there was an air of mystery to it that was unappealing. Who was I really talking to? And, no one can forget those obnoxious and hideous profile pages. Who could find anything in that barrage of flashing images, clashing colors and obtrusive music that started with every new profile seen. I could not handle it.

And then there was the promise of “The Facebook.” At the time, you needed an e-mail account ending with .edu or you would not be able to join. The profiles clearly stated the member’s name at the top of the page. The design was clean and made finding information easy. And, most of all, no music randomly starting. This was the place for me.

As soon as I received my university e-mail address, I registered for an account. Since that day in the summer of 2005, my life has been cataloged via Facebook (and since 2008, Twitter).

This is my backstory as I began to watch “The Social Network.” Suffice it to say I was already invested to this film even before taking my seat in the theater because my college career was influenced so heavily by Facebook. But my attachment to the website didn’t mean I was going to
love the film.

Aaron Sorkin, who wrote the screenplay, explained on “The View” that your opinion of the movie will not be swayed about whether or not you like Facebook.

“If you hate Facebook, if you love Facebook, if you’ve never heard of Facebook, that doesn’t matter. The movie isn’t about Facebook,” Sorkin said to the ladies.

And part of that statement is true. Sorkin’s screenplay focuses on the story around Facebook, not necessarily the website itself.

Sorkin and director David Fincher understand “The Social Network” is about the characters, not the website.

The movie is jam-packed with impeccable, smart dialogue thanks to Sorkin, the brain behind great TV series “The West Wing” and “Sports Night.” The audience experiences a high-energy, fast-paced story that keeps its attention.

Comparing “Network” to other excellent films from this year — such as “Inception” and “Toy Story 3” — is difficult because the genres are vastly different. There is, however, one similarity: they are all impressive films.

The editing, cinematography and soundtrack work very well together, keeping “The Social Network” exciting and intense. Viewers are immersed into the film and are suddenly invested in the story. It is hard to watch passively. Eyes are glued to the screen for the two-hour running time, making for an atypical movie-going experience.

/ 5

Trailer:

My official 2010 Emmys Predictions (Updated)

Normally, I don't play the predictions game with the Emmys, but I was asked what shows I thought would win so here we are... There are 19 categories to be determined, split between series, specials and acting.

Typically, the Academy Awards has many predictors for whom will win. With the Emmys, it's a little more up in the air. With that said, here are my official predictions for the 62nd Annual Primetime Emmy Awards (winners marked ***):

SERIES, DRAMA – 60% Confidence

• Breaking Bad (AMC)
• Dexter (Showtime)
• The Good Wife (CBS) – Ultimate dark horse, but unlikely
  
• Lost (ABC) – Winner; last season to be nominated, spectacular show
  
• ***Mad Men (AMC) – Cast won Emmy; won last two years; I'm not a fan
  
• True Blood (HBO)

SERIES, COMEDY – 85% Confidence

• Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
• Glee (FOX) – Dark horse, but hour-long shows fail to win category
  
• ***Modern Family (ABC) – Critics favorite and likely winner
  
• Nurse Jackie (Showtime)
• The Office (NBC)
• 30 Rock (NBC)

REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM – 95% Confidence

• The Amazing Race (CBS) – Won since category was created; No. 8? Yep.
  
• American Idol (FOX) – Probably Not
  
• Dancing with the Stars (ABC)
• Project Runway (Lifetime)
• ***Top Chef (Bravo)

MADE FOR TV MOVIE – 60% Confidence

• Endgame (PBS)
• Georgia O’Keeffe (Lifetime)
• Moon Shot (History)
• The Special Relationship (HBO)
• ***Temple Grandin (HBO) – Dark horse; movie about autism
  
• You Don’t Know Jack (HBO) – Winner; movie about Jack Kevorkian; STRONG acting
  

MINISERIES – 95% Confidence

• ***The Pacific (HBO) – Cast won for miniseries
• Return to Cranford (PBS)

VARIETY, MUSIC OR COMEDY SERIES – 75% Confidence

• The Colbert Report (Comedy Central) – Already won writing award; the favorite
  
• ***The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Comedy Central) – Won the last seven years; No. 8? Probably.
  
• Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
• Saturday Night Live (NBC) – A great season, but competition is stiff
  
• The Tonight Show with Conan O’Brien (NBC) – What a great win this would be!
  

VARIETY, MUSIC OR COMEDY SPECIAL – 60% Confidence

• Bill Maher “...But I’m Not Wrong” (HBO)
• Hope for Haiti Now:A Global Benefit for Earthquake Relief (MTV) – Great show
  
• ***Kennedy Center Honors (CBS) – Won last year
  
• Robin Williams: Weapons Of Self Destruction (HBO)
• The 25th Anniversary Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame Concert (HBO)
• Wanda Sykes: I’ma Be Me (HBO)

ACTOR, DRAMA – 50% Confidence – Almost a toss-up

• Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights – Nope
  
• ***Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad – Won twice, but probably not a third
  
• Matthew Fox, Lost – Would be great, but not likely
  
• Michael C. Hall, Dexter – Critics (and my friends) love him and the show
  
• Jon Hamm, Mad Men – Could win
  
• Hugh Laurie, House – For the finale alone... the ultimate winner
  

ACTRESS, DRAMA – 98% Confidence!

• Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights
• Glenn Close, Damages
• Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: SVU
• January Jones, Mad Men
• Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife – Hands down; won the Golden Globe
  
• ***Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer – Maybe, but very unlikely
  

ACTOR, COMEDY – 85% Confidence

• Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock – Won the last two times, but another win? Maybe
  
• Steve Carell, The Office
• Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
• Matthew Morrison, Glee – Possible, but unlikely
  
• ***Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory – Easy choice
  
• Tony Shalhoub, Monk – Maybe, but probably not
  

ACTRESS, COMEDY – 75% Confidence

• Toni Collette, United States Of Tara – Won last year, maybe again
  
• ***Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie – Time has come
  
• Tina Fey, 30 Rock – Maybe but unlikely
  
• Julia Louis-Dreyfus, The New Adventures Of Old Christine
• Lea Michele, Glee – Competition is fierce so no chance
  
• Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

SUPPORTING ACTOR, DRAMA – 80% Confidence

• Andre Braugher, Men Of A Certain Age
• Michael Emerson, Lost – Already won, but could win again
  
• Terry O’Quinn, Lost – Already won, but WHAT A PERFORMANCE!!
  
• ***Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad – A possibility
  
• Martin Short, Damages
• John Slattery, Mad Men

SUPPORTING ACTRESS, DRAMA – 60% Confidence

• Christine Baranski, The Good Wife – Perfect performances week to week
  
• Rose Byrne, Damages
  
• Sharon Gless, Burn Notice – If Men vs. Wife splits all votes, a likely win
  
• Christina Hendricks, Mad Men – Could win the Men vs. Wife contest
  
• Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men – Did I mention I don't watch this show? Maybe
  
• ***Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife – No showcase episode
  

SUPPORTING ACTOR, COMEDY – 75% Confidence

• Ty Burrell, Modern Family
• Chris Colfer, Glee – Great actor, but not his year
  
• Jon Cryer, Two And A Half Men – No
  
• Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
• Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother – Would be great
  
• ***Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family – Someone from this show will win; he's winning
  

SUPPORTING ACTRESS, COMEDY – 95% Confidence!

• Julie Bowen, Modern Family
• Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
• ***Jane Lynch, Glee – Hands down, but a "Modern Family" lady could ride the wave...
  
• Holland Taylor, Two and a Half Men
• Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
• Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live

LEAD ACTOR, MINISERIES/MOVIE – 85% Confidence

• Jeff Bridges, A Dog Year – Too soon for an Emmy after an Oscar? Maybe, but it's possible
  
• Ian McKellen, The Prisoner – BIG NAME, GREAT ACTOR, but unlikely
  
• ***Al Pacino, You Don't Know Jack – Most likely
  
• Dennis Quaid, The Special Relationship
• Michael Sheen, The Special Relationship

LEAD ACTRESS, MINISERIES/MOVIE – 90% Confidence

• Joan Allen, Georgia O’Keeffe – Probably not...
  
• ***Claire Danes, Temple Grandin – Most likely in very tough competition
  
• Hope Davis, The Special Relationship
• Judi Dench, Return to Cranford – Maybe
  
• Maggie Smith, Capturing Mary

SUPPORTING ACTOR, MINISERIES/MOVIE – 65% Confidence

• Michael Gambon, Emma – Could win
  
• John Goodman, You Don't Know Jack – Probably will win
  
• Jonathan Pryce, Return to Cranford
• Patrick Stewart, Hamlet – Dark horse
  
• ***David Strathairn, Temple Grandin

SUPPORTING ACTRESS, MINISERIES/MOVIE – 65% Confidence

• Kathy Bates, Alice
• Catherine O'Hara, Temple Grandin – Possible, but unlikely
  
• ***Julia Ormond, Temple Grandin
• Susan Sarandon, You Don't Know Jack – Great acting, could pull out a win
  
• Brenda Vaccaro, You Don't Know Jack – Most likely winner, but competitive category
  

UPDATE: Successfully predicted 10/19 categories.

Need to print out a ballot? I've got you covered:

Open publication to download

Oscar® (Way Early!) Update: A January Telecast? And producers named.

Four months ahead of last year's announcement, the 83rd Annual Academy Awards now has telecast producers. Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences President Tom Sherak announced late Tuesday.

Academy Award-winning producer Bruce Cohen and television producer/director Don Mischer will produce the ceremony. Mischer will pull double duty as telecast director as well. While being involved with the telecast is a first for the gentlemen, they worked together on the Academy’s first Governors Awards last November.

“I fell in love with the Oscars as an eight-year-old kid, the night my grandmothers let me stay up to watch for the first time,” Cohen was quoted in the press release. "We hope to create a show that celebrates what people around the world love about the Academy Awards year after year – the excitement, glamour and tradition of Oscar Night itself.”

Cohen won an Academy Award in 1999, with Dan Jinks, as a producer of Best Picture “American Beauty.” Both he and Jinks were nominated again in 2008 for "Milk" in the Best Picture category. Cohen’s other producing credits include “Big Fish” (2003) and “Pushing Daisies."

Mischer’s producer/director credits include several Super Bowl halftime shows and the opening ceremonies of both Winter and Summer Olympic Games. He has earned 15 Emmy Awards and a Peabody Award.

But that's not what had people talking... buzz was circulating about a Board of Governors meeting Tuesday night where members discussed moving up the February ceremony date to a Sunday in January.

Since the 2004 ceremony, the Academy moved the normally late March telecast up a month, to February. The 2006 and 2010 ceremonies were held on the first Sundays of March because of the Winter Olympics. Other February ceremonies were held in 1935 and 1939 through 1942.

Wednesday afternoon, Academy officials confirmed the change would not affect next year's ceremony, according to Entertainment Weekly.

"The discussion was about the possibility of doing so no sooner than the 84th Academy Awards, to be held in 2012," an Academy spokeswoman said. "The date for the next Oscar telecast, the 83rd, has already been announced and is firm: February 27, 2011.”

We're 248 days out from the Oscar Sunday. Keep it here for complete news and links about all things Oscar.

Now, go back to enjoying your summer.


Links:
• Read a roundup of reactions from Hollywood insiders.
• From the Hollywood Reporter: "Holding Oscars earlier would be tricky"
• Hollywood scoop queen Nikki Finke first reported the possible move late Tuesday.

mtvU correspondent team announced

And the spot on the Red Carpet goes to… Terry Stackhouse and Zach Cusson. The team from Emerson College are the Grand Prize winners for the 2010 Oscar Correspondent Contest, sponsored by the Academy and mtvU.

The coveted prize among college journalists gives students a spot on the Red Carpet for the 82nd Academy Awards and access to the backstage press rooms and the Governors Ball.

“Terry and Zach made a strong impression among the online voters and with the Academy and mtvU selection panel. We are certain they will represent college journalists well,” said Academy President Tom Sherak, quoted in the press release. “They are in for an experience like no other — the energy and excitement on Oscar’s® red carpet is truly unique.”

Stackhouse and Cusson battled for votes on mtvU's Web site after winning a spot to compete against 10 semifinalists, which was whittled down to three mid-February.

The winning team was selected through a second round of online voting and evaluation by a panel composed of Academy staff and journalists — Jess Cagle from Entertainment Weekly, Sandy Cohen from the Associated Press and Bonnie Tiegel from “Entertainment Tonight” and “The Insider,” according to a press release.

Runners-up Rachel Berry and Christian Hartnett of Chapman University, and Brandon McCaskill and Kiarra Hart of Florida A&M University earned bleacher seats along the Red Carpet, where they will be able to watch guest arrivals. They also will receive admission to the 2010 Bleacher Fan Oscar Viewing Party, sponsored by Kodak, at the El Capitan Theatre. Kodak provided each of the finalists with a Kodak Zi8 pocket video camera and a Kodak EasyShare M381 digital camera.

Rethink. will be watching for coverage from the Emerson team and will share any videos we find.

Link: Emerson team video

Video update: Meeting Oscar

Spending the weekend in Chicago, I enjoyed visiting the "Meet the Oscars" exhibition at the Shops At Northbridge downtown, Michigan Avenue. Thanks to Kodak, you can take a picture with an Oscar statuette and have a copy printed in about a minute and go online later to download a digital copy.

If you are visiting Chicago, the exhibition closes Sunday at 6 p.m. CT. If you are in New York City, there is another "Meet the Oscars" location at The Shops at Columbus Circle, Time Warner Center, running until Sunday at 6 p.m. ET.

This was my second time holding an Oscar statuette and was just as enjoyable as the first. The 8.5-pound statuette never ceases to amaze. It's shiny, smooth and solid. And the most coveted and well-known trophy in the world.



Link to video: Oscar Update: Meet Oscar - March 7, 2010


Sunday night we will learn the lucky few who are given their very own golden statuette.

My official 2010 Oscar Predictions

Are you in need of some help for your office Oscar pool? Well have no fear because here are my official predicitions for the 82nd Academy Awards. My average rate of success is 75% and above. And I will note each category with a percentage of confidence to give you the best shot at winning your pool.

This year, let me say, could be very predictable or very unpredictable. I'm going with both.

Best motion picture of the year — 50%

• “Avatar” (20th Century Fox) — MY MONEY'S ON "AVATAR," BUT I'M JADED; I DID NOT LIKE "HURT LOCKER" AS MUCH
  
• “The Blind Side” (Warner Bros.)
• “District 9” (Sony Pictures Releasing)
• “An Education” (Sony Pictures Classics)
• “The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment) — ALL THE PREDICTORS ARE THERE, BUT I CANNOT PUT THIS DOWN FOR THE WIN
  
• “Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company)
• “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate)
• “A Serious Man” (Focus Features)
• “Up” (Walt Disney)
• “Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios) — THE DARK HORSE; COULD STEAL THE NIGHT
  

Performance by an actor in a leading role — 90%

• Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart” (Fox Searchlight) — DONE
  
• George Clooney in “Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios)
• Colin Firth in “A Single Man” (The Weinstein Company)
• Morgan Freeman in “Invictus” (Warner Bros.)
• Jeremy Renner in “The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment)

Performance by an actor in a supporting role — 99.99%

• Matt Damon in “Invictus” (Warner Bros.)
• Woody Harrelson in “The Messenger” (Oscilloscope Laboratories)
• Christopher Plummer in “The Last Station” (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Stanley Tucci in “The Lovely Bones” (DreamWorks in association with Film4, Distributed by Paramount)
• Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company) — THE SUREST WINNER OF THE NIGHT / EASIEST PREDICTION
  

Performance by an actress in a leading role — 75%

• Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side” (Warner Bros.) — HANDS DOWN!
  
• Helen Mirren in “The Last Station” (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Carey Mulligan in “An Education” (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Gabourey Sidibe in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate)
• Meryl Streep in “Julie & Julia” (Sony Pictures Releasing)

Performance by an actress in a supporting role — 85%

• Penélope Cruz in “Nine” (The Weinstein Company)
• Vera Farmiga in “Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios)
• Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Crazy Heart” (Fox Searchlight)
• Anna Kendrick in “Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios)
• Mo’Nique in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate) — HANDS DOWN WINNER!!!!!
  

Best animated feature film of the year — 90%

• “Coraline” (Focus Features), Henry Selick
• “Fantastic Mr. Fox” (20th Century Fox), Wes Anderson
• “The Princess and the Frog” (Walt Disney), John Musker and Ron Clements
• “The Secret of Kells” (GKIDS), Tomm Moore
• “Up” (Walt Disney), Pete Docter — PIXAR IS ALWAYS A GREAT CHOICE!!
  

Achievement in art direction — 70%

• “Avatar” (20th Century Fox), Art Direction: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg, Set Decoration: Kim Sinclair
• “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus” (Sony Pictures Classics), Art Direction: Dave Warren and Anastasia Masaro, Set Decoration: Caroline Smith
• “Nine” (The Weinstein Company), Art Direction: John Myhre, Set Decoration: Gordon Sim
• “Sherlock Holmes” (Warner Bros.), Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood, Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
• “The Young Victoria” (Apparition), Art Direction: Patrice Vermette, Set Decoration: Maggie Gray

Achievement in cinematography — 75%

• “Avatar” (20th Century Fox), Mauro Fiore — WHAT A BEAUTIFUL FILM!
  
• “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince” (Warner Bros.), Bruno Delbonnel
• “The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment), Barry Ackroyd
• “Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company), Robert Richardson
• “The White Ribbon” (Sony Pictures Classics), Christian Berger

Achievement in costume design — 90%

• “Bright Star” (Apparition), Janet Patterson
• “Coco before Chanel” (Sony Pictures Classics), Catherine Leterrier
• “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus” (Sony Pictures Classics), Monique Prudhomme
• “Nine” (The Weinstein Company), Colleen Atwood
• “The Young Victoria” (Apparition), Sandy Powell — WITHOUT A DOUBT!
  

Achievement in directing — 90%

• “Avatar” (20th Century Fox), James Cameron
• “The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment), Kathryn Bigelow — HANDS DOWN WINNER!
  
• “Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company), Quentin Tarantino
• “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate), Lee Daniels
• “Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios), Jason Reitman

Best documentary feature — 75%

• “Burma VJ” (Oscilloscope Laboratories), A Magic Hour Films Production, Anders østergaard and Lise Lense-Møller
• “The Cove” (Roadside Attractions), An Oceanic Preservation Society Production, Nominees to be determined
• “Food, Inc.” (Magnolia Pictures), A Robert Kenner Films Production, Robert Kenner and Elise Pearlstein
• “The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers”, A Kovno Communications Production, Judith Ehrlich and Rick Goldsmith
• “Which Way Home”, A Mr. Mudd Production, Rebecca Cammisa

Best documentary short subject —60%

• “China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan, Province”, A Downtown Community Television Center Production, Jon Alpert and Matthew O’Neill
• “The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner”, A Just Media Production, Daniel Junge and Henry Ansbacher
• “The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant”, A Community Media Production, Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert
• “Music by Prudence”, An iThemba Production, Roger Ross Williams and Elinor Burkett
• “Rabbit à la Berlin” (Deckert Distribution), An MS Films Production, Bartek Konopka and Anna Wydra

Achievement in film editing — 60%

• “Avatar” (20th Century Fox), Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua and James Cameron — MAYBE "HURT LOCKER" IF IT WINS BEST PICTURE
  
• “District 9” (Sony Pictures Releasing), Julian Clarke
• “The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment), Bob Murawski and Chris Innis
• “Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company), Sally Menke
• “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate), Joe Klotz

Best foreign language film of the year — 75%

• “Ajami” (Kino International), An Inosan Production, Israel
• “El Secreto de Sus Ojos” (Sony Pictures Classics), A Haddock Films Production, Argentina
• “The Milk of Sorrow”, A Wanda Visión/Oberon Cinematogrà/Vela Production, Peru
• “Un Prophète” (Sony Pictures Classics), A Why Not/Page 114/Chic Films Production, France
• “The White Ribbon” (Sony Pictures Classics), An X Filme Creative Pool/Wega Film/Les Films du Losange/Lucky Red Production, Germany — I WANT "UN PROPHÈTE" BUT I KNOW IT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN
  

Achievement in makeup — 70%

• “Il Divo” (MPI Media Group through Music Box), Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano
• “Star Trek” (Paramount and Spyglass Entertainment), Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow
• “The Young Victoria” (Apparition), Jon Henry Gordon and Jenny Shircore

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score) — 75%

• “Avatar” (20th Century Fox), James Horner
• “Fantastic Mr. Fox” (20th Century Fox), Alexandre Desplat
• “The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment), Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
• “Sherlock Holmes” (Warner Bros.), Hans Zimmer
• “Up” (Walt Disney), Michael Giacchino — AMAZING SCORE!!
  

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song) — 75%

• “Almost There” from “The Princess and the Frog” (Walt Disney), Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
• “Down in New Orleans” from “The Princess and the Frog” (Walt Disney), Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
• “Loin de Paname” from “Paris 36” (Sony Pictures Classics), Music by Reinhardt Wagner, Lyric by Frank Thomas
• “Take It All” from “Nine” (The Weinstein Company), Music and Lyric by Maury Yeston
• “The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)” from “Crazy Heart” (Fox Searchlight), Music and Lyric by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett

Best animated short film — 60%

• “French Roast” , A Pumpkin Factory/Bibo Films Production, Fabrice O. Joubert
• “Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty” (Brown Bag Films), A Brown Bag Films Production, Nicky Phelan and Darragh O’Connell
• “The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)”, A Kandor Graphics and Green Moon Production, Javier Recio Gracia
• “Logorama” (Autour de Minuit), An Autour de Minuit Production, Nicolas Schmerkin
• “A Matter of Loaf and Death” (Aardman Animations), An Aardman Animations Production, Nick Park

Best live action short film — 60%

• “The Door” (Network Ireland Television), An Octagon Films Production, Juanita Wilson and James Flynn
• “Instead of Abracadabra”, (The Swedish Film Institute), A Directörn & Fabrikörn Production, Patrik Eklund and Mathias Fjellström
• “Kavi”, A Gregg Helvey Production, Gregg Helvey
• “Miracle Fish”, (Premium Films), A Druid Films Production, Luke Doolan and Drew Bailey
• “The New Tenants”, A Park Pictures and M & M Production, Joachim Back and Tivi Magnusson

Achievement in sound editing — 55%

• “Avatar” (20th Century Fox), Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
  
• “The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment), Paul N.J. Ottosson
• “Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company), Wylie Stateman
• “Star Trek” (Paramount and Spyglass Entertainment), Mark Stoeckinger and Alan Rankin
• “Up” (Walt Disney), Michael Silvers and Tom Myers

Achievement in sound mixing — 55%

• “Avatar” (20th Century Fox), Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson and Tony Johnson
• “The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment), Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett
• “Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company), Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti and Mark Ulano
• “Star Trek” (Paramount and Spyglass Entertainment), Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson and Peter J. Devlin
• “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro, Distributed by Paramount), Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers and Geoffrey Patterson

Achievement in visual effects — 90%

• “Avatar” (20th Century Fox), Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones — NO QUESTION
  
• “District 9” (Sony Pictures Releasing) , Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros and Matt Aitken
• “Star Trek” (Paramount and Spyglass Entertainment), Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh and Burt Dalton

Adapted screenplay — 90%

• “District 9” (Sony Pictures Releasing), Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
• “An Education” (Sony Pictures Classics), Screenplay by Nick Hornby
• “In the Loop” (IFC Films), Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
• “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate), Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher
• “Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios) , Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner — NO QUESTION
  

Original screenplay — 65%

• “The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment), Written by Mark Boal
• “Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company), Written by Quentin Tarantino — MAYBE HURT LOCKER, BUT QUENTIN'S GETTING THE BUZZ
  
• “The Messenger” (Oscilloscope Laboratories), Written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
• “A Serious Man” (Focus Features), Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
• “Up” (Walt Disney), Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy

Well there you have it. On Sunday, we'll see how accurate I am. Bon chance!